On 5 October 2026 the European Commission published the CBAM certificate price for the third quarter of 2026: 82.32 euros per tonne. In the first two quarters the figure was 75.36 and 75.28 euros. The price is no longer something that will be paid “some day”. It is a number announced every quarter, and you can follow it.
The party that buys the certificate is the importer in the EU. As an exporter, though, you meet this number indirectly: your buyer multiplies your product’s embedded emissions by this price and adds the result to its cost calculation. This article explains how the price is formed, how it reaches export costs in a simple example, and what you can do with the data you already hold.
How is the price calculated?
According to the Commission’s CBAM page, the certificate price is the weighted average of the auction clearing prices in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The aim is to bring the carbon cost carried by imported goods close to the carbon cost paid by producers inside the EU.
The calendar has two periods:
- 2026: the price is calculated quarterly. Each quarter’s price is announced in the first calendar week after the quarter ends.
- From 2027: the price moves to a weekly average.
The values published so far, as listed on the Commission page:
| Quarter | Published | Price (euro/tonne) |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 7 April 2026 | 75.36 |
| Q2 2026 | 6 July 2026 | 75.28 |
| Q3 2026 | 5 October 2026 | 82.32 |
| Q4 2026 | 4 January 2027 (planned) | Not yet published |
That is a jump of roughly seven euros from one quarter to the next. Because the price follows the carbon market, it can go up or down. Working with a range is safer than fixing one number in the budget.
When will certificates be bought?
The Commission states that CBAM certificates will be purchased on a common central platform from February 2027. No certificates are bought in 2026, but the obligation for 2026 imports does arise. The deadline for the first annual declaration and the surrender of certificates for 2026 imports is 30 September 2027.
So over the coming months your EU buyers are working out the 2026 position and planning cash for 2027 at the same time. The direction of the price shapes their forecasts.
How does the number reach export costs?
The example below is entirely hypothetical. It does not describe a real product; it only shows the logic.
Say your EU buyer takes 1,000 tonnes a year of a CBAM product, and the embedded emissions are 2 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per tonne of product.
- Total embedded emissions: 1,000 × 2 = 2,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent
- At a quarterly price of 82.32 euros, the gross amount: 2,000 × 82.32 = 164,640 euros
- Per tonne of product: about 164 euros
This is an upper bound. In practice the burden can be lower for two reasons. First, if a carbon price was already paid in the country of production and you can document it, that amount can be deducted (the Commission page lists this deduction). Second, there is an adjustment linked to the gradual phase-out of free allocation in the EU. Confirm the exact application for your product group from the regulation text and your buyer’s advisor.
In the same example, if emissions were 1.6 instead of 2 tonnes, the gross amount would fall to 131,712 euros. The price is not in your hands, but the number it multiplies, your product’s emissions value, partly is.
Which data sets the amount?
The price forms in the market; what you can influence is the emissions value. If the buyer cannot get verified actual data, it uses the Commission’s default values, which with the mark-up are generally higher. We covered this in detail in default values or actual data.
As the price rises, measured data becomes more valuable, because the same emissions difference carries a larger monetary value. A difference of one tonne of CO2 equivalent is worth 75 euros at a price of 75 and 82 euros at a price of 82.
Whom does the 50-tonne threshold cover?
The Commission page defines a single mass-based threshold of 50 tonnes for importers of CBAM goods into the EU. Importers above it must become authorised CBAM declarants. In its assessment of 30 September 2026 the Commission stated that the share of embedded emissions exempted by the threshold was 0.87%.
For an exporter, this means a buyer below the threshold may have different obligations. But large, regular buyers, the backbone of most export books, are far above it. Ask your buyer about its status directly instead of guessing.
Six steps you can take today
- Match your product list to tariff codes. Make clear which products are inside CBAM and which are outside.
- Estimate emissions per product. A rough calculation from invoices, meter readings and production records is enough.
- Multiply with three price scenarios. For example the current price, one higher and one lower. That shows the budget range even when the price moves.
- Talk to your buyers. Which buyer wants which data, in what format, by what date?
- Document any carbon payment. If you pay a carbon price, keep the records tidy. The deduction needs evidence.
- Put the data flow on a monthly routine. Collecting everything backwards at year end is both costly and error-prone.
Where İkiz Eksen fits
The price comes from outside; the emissions value comes from your plant. The chain that makes that value credible is measurement, software and compliance: collecting meter and machine data, joining it with ERP and production records, and turning it into a report a verifier can read. We build this chain turnkey: measurement infrastructure at the plant, a data platform on Microsoft Azure, ERP integration and reporting. With the experience carried over from Qera, 550+ customers, 15+ sectors and 100+ ERP projects, we work across Türkiye.
Related pages: green transition, twin transition and solutions. If you would like a rough cost study with your own product list, write to us.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the exporter buy the CBAM certificate?
No. The authorised importer in the EU buys it. But the cost comes back to the exporter through price negotiation, contract clauses and data requests.
How often is the certificate price published?
Quarterly in 2026 and weekly from 2027. The Q3 price came out on 5 October 2026, and the Q4 price is planned for 4 January 2027.
Is 82.32 euros added directly to my product’s cost?
No. It is the certificate price per tonne of CO2 equivalent. The amount per product is that price multiplied by your embedded emissions value. Items such as the deduction for a carbon price already paid and the free-allocation adjustment can change the final figure.
Does a small exporter escape the obligation?
The threshold applies to the total mass imported by the EU importer, not to your exports. Importers below 50 tonnes may be in a different position. Confirm your buyer’s status directly with the buyer.
What happens to the price next quarter?
It is unknown. The price follows EU ETS auctions and market conditions, so budgeting with a range is safer than with a single fixed number.
Sources: European Commission, Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, CBAM certificate price page; CBAM definitive regime page; CBAM news and communication page (30 September 2026 threshold assessment). Figures and dates are as of publication; confirm the free-allocation adjustment and other details from the official text and your advisor.